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What are the chances, mathematically speaking?
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What are the chances, mathematically speaking?

› Forums › General Melanoma Community › What are the chances, mathematically speaking?

  • Post
    • July 11, 2017 at 12:19 am
    Nemesis
    Participant

      Of moving from stage I to further stages. I can't seem to find a definite answer. Is there one?

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        • July 11, 2017 at 12:39 am
        jennunicorn
        Participant

          All we have currently are some outdated survival statistics. 

          Stage IA: The 5-year survival rate is around 97%. The 10-year survival is around 95%.

          Stage IB: The 5-year survival rate is around 92%. The 10-year survival is around 86%.

          https://www.cancer.org/cancer/melanoma-skin-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates-for-melanoma-skin-cancer-by-stage.html

          Basically it is VERY low risk to go from stage 1 to later stages. This forum is not a good representation of what happens as a whole in the melanoma community. 

            • July 11, 2017 at 2:02 pm
            Gene_S
            Participant

              I personally thing the reason you do not get a good representation on this forum is because the Stage 1 people do not stick around because most on this board are Stage 111 or Stage 1V and are receiving active treatment.  Until they advance or rather if they advance they do not need all the information that is given here.

              Bless them that they don't have to go through what the ones on this forum have to.

            • July 11, 2017 at 2:53 pm
            Janner
            Participant

              I'm not sure I've ever seen "progression" statistics as opposed to survival statistics.  Survival statistics are tracked through different registries (even death certificates) but progression stats aren't captured the same way.  Maybe in clinical trials, but in general – I don't think you will find progression stats unless individual institutions track their own patients that way or clinical trials address that very issue.. 

              • July 21, 2017 at 2:42 am
              stotesbery
              Participant

                Hi,

                I was diagnosed as Stage 1a with a thickness of 0.82 or right around there.  My dermatologist told me I had a 4-7% chance of recurrence.  That was just my experience but I was diagnosed in 2008 and staging might have changed a bit since then.

                Christal

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